By Neil Mann, Founder of Future Horizon
The Paris 2024 Olympics, a significant event at the intersection of A.I., machine learning, and sports, are in full swing, running from 24 July until 11 August. We’ll hopefully see World Records broken by elite competitors who have been training for years to demonstrate their world-class physical prowess. The safety, welfare, and performance of some athletes are being enhanced by a combination of Machine Learning (ML) and Artificial Intelligence (A.I.).
Competitors, medical staff, managers, sports scientists, coaches, and analysts crunch large amounts of data to understand better precisely what individuals need to stay healthy, recover quickly, and perform at their best. Software allows for studying a variety of human performance metrics (e.g., precise timing, speed, and body position) in real time, as well as detecting patterns or trends in wider analytics to optimize decision-making. Injuries, recovery regimes, and even diet are all part of the comprehensive analysis, which automatically captures factors such as meteorological conditions, equipment used, and calories taken in and used.
Some have 3D models of their complete bodies, using motion capture and digital video to recreate an athlete’s entire skeleton virtually. Teams use these models to improve performance by building learnings into training routines.
The Battle for Generative A.I. Patents: China Leads the Way
Regarding the arm-wrestle competition around generative A.I. patents, recent World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) data shows that China is leading, filing 6x times more patents than its closest rival (the USA). China filed over 38,000 innovations between 2014 and 2023, with sectors including publishing, document management, and autonomous driving potentially seeing future impact. Top applicants include Alibaba Group and ByteDance. Over the same period, the number in the USA was 6,276, with Microsoft as the leading applicant.
Fifty thousand patent applications in the generative A.I. field have been filed in the last ten years; 25% of this total were submitted in 2023. Bronze went to South Korea, with Japan and India next in the rankings. Separate from this research, according to data from PitchBook, A.I. deals have lifted USA Venture Capital (V.C.) funding to its highest level in two years. The latest figure shows $55.6 billion invested, a 47% jump from the $37.8 billion U.S. startups raised in the first quarter. These big bets are all predicated on the hope that substantial revenue from A.I. adoption will yield significant future returns. The operative word there is “hope”.
The Reality of A.I. Investments: A Cautionary Tale
Bar a few exceptions, revenue growth from A.I. still needs to materialize. Through a macro business proposition lens, it’s unarguable that – strategically – A.I. today is all about massive spending for minimal benefit; net-net, it’s economically unproductive. Fatigue is setting in as, so far, commercial hopes for A.I. have proven to be overblown – the amounts are huge, and any Return on Investment (ROI) timeline is unclear at best (likely 5+ years out). According to a new report from Sequoia Capital, the AI industry needs to generate $600 billion annually to cover the extensive costs of AI hardware (such as data centers).
Their analysis suggests that the current revenue projections for A.I. companies are falling short, raising concerns over a potential financial bubble within the A.I. sector. This highlights a significant financial gap despite heavy investments from major tech companies, V.C.s, and governments. It took a long time for companies like NVIDIA to become successful; this is an exception, not the rule, no matter your current level of investment FOMO. The discrepancy between AI infrastructure expenditures and revenue, coupled with speculative investments, suggests that the AI industry faces significant challenges in achieving sustainable profit.
As we reach peak hype—likely in H2 2024 – a tipping point may lead to a significant correction: at best, a wave of consolidation via mergers and acquisitions, which could lead to much broader economic instability. It’s still early days where A.I. might take us, but we’ve seen this episode before, and it doesn’t have a happy ending for most. The warning signs are already there, and things are running WAY too hot. 25th July saw violent adverse movements in the Nasdaq 100, with a $1 trillion painful rout due to activity in the derivatives market.
Perhaps our complex emotions are developing, adjusting, and evolving on this topic—just (though perhaps slower) than A.I. tech itself. Suppose the rise of general machine intelligence ends up being inevitable over time. In that case, we’ll need to come to terms with it, accepting letting go of the past, and reconciling with the updated norm – just like any major change. So it might be beneficial to map where we are vis Elisabeth Kubler-Ross’ five evolving stages of grief.
Denial. Anger. Bargaining. Depression. Acceptance.
I have no background in psychology, but right now, it feels like we’re broadly somewhere between stages one and two when it comes to A.I. Soon, more businesses will become cognizant that what they have been sold in terms of A.I. – let’s call it a Venti Cappuccino – is, in fact, largely froth: all they have to show is a single short shot of cold, weak espresso. Then, there indeed will be a reckoning – and lots of grief.
What’s the next digital frontier for your business? Future Horizon scouts the evolving landscape, ensuring you stay ahead of emerging trends. We deliver strategic foresight on cutting-edge technology, translating complex innovations into practical business insights.
Our mission is to provide reconnaissance into the forefront of digital innovation, serving as a bridge between the present and the possibilities of tomorrow. Through our ARK service model—Advisory, Research, Knowledge—we challenge conventional thinking, offer actionable insights, and explain the implications of the latest digital advancements to CEOs, boards, and business leaders.
Exploring future possibilities and building anticipation involves zero risk. Shape what comes next on your preferred horizon with Future Horizon.
Think bold. Think broad. Think beyond.
Paris 2024 Olympics: It´s Gold for China
By Neil Mann, Founder of Future Horizon
The Paris 2024 Olympics, a significant event at the intersection of A.I., machine learning, and sports, are in full swing, running from 24 July until 11 August. We’ll hopefully see World Records broken by elite competitors who have been training for years to demonstrate their world-class physical prowess. The safety, welfare, and performance of some athletes are being enhanced by a combination of Machine Learning (ML) and Artificial Intelligence (A.I.).
Competitors, medical staff, managers, sports scientists, coaches, and analysts crunch large amounts of data to understand better precisely what individuals need to stay healthy, recover quickly, and perform at their best. Software allows for studying a variety of human performance metrics (e.g., precise timing, speed, and body position) in real time, as well as detecting patterns or trends in wider analytics to optimize decision-making. Injuries, recovery regimes, and even diet are all part of the comprehensive analysis, which automatically captures factors such as meteorological conditions, equipment used, and calories taken in and used.
Some have 3D models of their complete bodies, using motion capture and digital video to recreate an athlete’s entire skeleton virtually. Teams use these models to improve performance by building learnings into training routines.
The Battle for Generative A.I. Patents: China Leads the Way
Regarding the arm-wrestle competition around generative A.I. patents, recent World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) data shows that China is leading, filing 6x times more patents than its closest rival (the USA). China filed over 38,000 innovations between 2014 and 2023, with sectors including publishing, document management, and autonomous driving potentially seeing future impact. Top applicants include Alibaba Group and ByteDance. Over the same period, the number in the USA was 6,276, with Microsoft as the leading applicant.
Fifty thousand patent applications in the generative A.I. field have been filed in the last ten years; 25% of this total were submitted in 2023. Bronze went to South Korea, with Japan and India next in the rankings. Separate from this research, according to data from PitchBook, A.I. deals have lifted USA Venture Capital (V.C.) funding to its highest level in two years. The latest figure shows $55.6 billion invested, a 47% jump from the $37.8 billion U.S. startups raised in the first quarter. These big bets are all predicated on the hope that substantial revenue from A.I. adoption will yield significant future returns. The operative word there is “hope”.
The Reality of A.I. Investments: A Cautionary Tale
Bar a few exceptions, revenue growth from A.I. still needs to materialize. Through a macro business proposition lens, it’s unarguable that – strategically – A.I. today is all about massive spending for minimal benefit; net-net, it’s economically unproductive. Fatigue is setting in as, so far, commercial hopes for A.I. have proven to be overblown – the amounts are huge, and any Return on Investment (ROI) timeline is unclear at best (likely 5+ years out). According to a new report from Sequoia Capital, the AI industry needs to generate $600 billion annually to cover the extensive costs of AI hardware (such as data centers).
Their analysis suggests that the current revenue projections for A.I. companies are falling short, raising concerns over a potential financial bubble within the A.I. sector. This highlights a significant financial gap despite heavy investments from major tech companies, V.C.s, and governments. It took a long time for companies like NVIDIA to become successful; this is an exception, not the rule, no matter your current level of investment FOMO. The discrepancy between AI infrastructure expenditures and revenue, coupled with speculative investments, suggests that the AI industry faces significant challenges in achieving sustainable profit.
As we reach peak hype—likely in H2 2024 – a tipping point may lead to a significant correction: at best, a wave of consolidation via mergers and acquisitions, which could lead to much broader economic instability. It’s still early days where A.I. might take us, but we’ve seen this episode before, and it doesn’t have a happy ending for most. The warning signs are already there, and things are running WAY too hot. 25th July saw violent adverse movements in the Nasdaq 100, with a $1 trillion painful rout due to activity in the derivatives market.
Perhaps our complex emotions are developing, adjusting, and evolving on this topic—just (though perhaps slower) than A.I. tech itself. Suppose the rise of general machine intelligence ends up being inevitable over time. In that case, we’ll need to come to terms with it, accepting letting go of the past, and reconciling with the updated norm – just like any major change. So it might be beneficial to map where we are vis Elisabeth Kubler-Ross’ five evolving stages of grief.
Denial. Anger. Bargaining. Depression. Acceptance.
I have no background in psychology, but right now, it feels like we’re broadly somewhere between stages one and two when it comes to A.I. Soon, more businesses will become cognizant that what they have been sold in terms of A.I. – let’s call it a Venti Cappuccino – is, in fact, largely froth: all they have to show is a single short shot of cold, weak espresso. Then, there indeed will be a reckoning – and lots of grief.
About Future Horizon
What’s the next digital frontier for your business? Future Horizon scouts the evolving landscape, ensuring you stay ahead of emerging trends. We deliver strategic foresight on cutting-edge technology, translating complex innovations into practical business insights.
Our mission is to provide reconnaissance into the forefront of digital innovation, serving as a bridge between the present and the possibilities of tomorrow. Through our ARK service model—Advisory, Research, Knowledge—we challenge conventional thinking, offer actionable insights, and explain the implications of the latest digital advancements to CEOs, boards, and business leaders.
Exploring future possibilities and building anticipation involves zero risk. Shape what comes next on your preferred horizon with Future Horizon.
Think bold. Think broad. Think beyond.
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